There are many ‘what if’ scenarios in South Africa, apart from the obvious biggie; what if the ANC never elected Jacob Zuma as ANC President; Medupi and Kusile would easily win the other prizes for ‘what if the two mega power station were actually completed and delivered the 9,600MW of power they were supposed to.’ It could have averted the dreaded load shedding that business and ordinary South Africans have to bear and Eskom would not have been the black hole sucking in the economy that the present Government is so desperately trying to avert. Eskom has overspent R52.2bn on the two power stations according to a report to the Parliamentary Appropriations Committee in May this year. And there isn’t much hope that the two power stations would ever deliver up to what was promised. Energy expert, Chris Yelland writes that there is a real risk that Kusile in Mpumalanga “may become a premature white elephant.” Eskom and the Government also appear to be stubbornly ignoring ex-employees of Eskom like Alex Ham, a former Chief Engineer who has suggested fixes to the two power stations.Eskom will announce its results for the past financial this week which Yelland expects to be R25bn in the red, but he thinks that may be peanuts if the two power station have to be written down. – Linda van Tilburg
The crisis at Kusile and titanic Eskom continues…
By Chris Yelland*
Eleven years after construction started on Eskom’s massive 4,800MW Kusile coal-fired power station in Mpumalanga province, South Africa, not one of its six 800MW generator units is currently delivering power into the grid.
Construction started at Kusile in 2008, and all six generation units were planned to be in commercial service by the end of 2014. However, the sad reality is that by the end of July 2019, five years after 2014, only Unit 1 at Kusile has been handed over for commercial service.
While Units 2 and 3 have been synchronised to the grid, they are still undergoing testing and commissioning, and the units are not in commercial service yet.
“It must be noted that only Unit 1 is in commercial operation, and Units 2 and 3 are still in the commissioning process following first synchronisation”, said Eskom deputy spokesperson Dikatso Mothae yesterday.
But worse, major design, execution and operational problems are being experienced, and currently all three units at Kusile are down and out-of-service for various reasons.
A routine inspection on Unit 1 recently found some defects in various areas of the plant, which are now being repaired. The planned date for return-to-service of Unit 1 is the second week of August 2019.
On Unit 2, a failure event was experienced on the induced draft (ID) fans in the first week of July 2019 after returning the unit to service from an inspection, and some minor repairs were done. The exact cause and re-instatement plan is presently under review.
Unit 3 is shut down for coal mill inspections and maintenance in order to continue with commissioning and plant optimisation before hand-over for commercial operation can take place. The expected return-to-service for Unit 3 is end August 2019.
Spares are said to be “mostly” available, however some plant equipment is being “borrowed” from various contractors.
“This plant equipment had been destined for Unit 6, but it will be procured by Eskom and supplied by the various contractors before Unit 6 is commissioned”, says Eskom.
In plain terms, some essential spares are not available, and Unit 6 at Kusile is being be stripped for certain replacement parts needed for Units 1, 2 and 3.
Similar problems are being experienced at Eskom’s Medupi power station, which has the same design, plant and contractors as Kusile, and is also under construction and running several years late.
At Medupi, Units 6, 5, 4 and 3 have been handed over for commercial service, while Unit 2 is undergoing commissioning, with Unit 1 still under construction. All units at Medupi were intended to be in commercial service by the end of 2013.
Some of the known problems at Medupi and Kusile are that the boiler height is too low for the slow-burning coal found in South Africa, which leads to a number of boiler operating problems.
The coal mills are also said to be of a type that results in inadequate fineness of the milled coal. Again, this causes problems within the boilers, as well as excessive wear, maintenance and downtime of the coal mills.
Excessive wear and tear is also being experienced on the ID fans, which draw the flue gas and ash dust from the boilers, through the fabric filter and flue gas desulphurisation plant, and up the smoke stack.
The pulsed-jet fabric filter plant, that extracts ash-dust from the flue gas, is not functioning properly. The main contractor for the ash-handling plant has gone into business rescue, closed their construction site offices, and removed all site personnel from the Medupi and Kusile sites.
The construction sites have also been plagued by legendary procurement irregularities and fraud, and the site management appears powerless in the face of inadequate skills, low productivity and union obstructionism. Indeed, unions and unionised workers are said to be effectively in control of the construction sites.
Question marks hang over Kusile on whether construction of Unit 5 and 6 should proceed, or whether Eskom should cut its losses and abandon further work on these units. It is clear a comprehensive, independent business-case study may be required to determine the viability of proceeding.
There are significant risks that Kusile may indeed become a premature white elephant and stranded asset if the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from the power station makes it impossible for the plant to compete against lower-cost, cleaner and more flexible generation options in a competitive environment.
The high LCOE would result from the technical problems, low energy availability factor (EAF), reduced energy output, coal supply problems, water restrictions and carbon taxes, which are likely to increase in future years.
Eskom is about to announce its results on Tuesday 30 July 2019 for the financial year ending 31 March 2019, with a bottom-line loss for the year expected to be in the region of R25bn. This would make it the biggest company and state-owned enterprise loss by far in the history of South Africa.
But with the massive cost and time overruns at Medupi and Kusile, and the liability of owning power plants that generate expensive, dirty, coal-fired electricity with high CO2 emissions, in a world transitioning to a low carbon future, this R25bn loss may seem like peanuts when the inevitable write-down of unrealistic asset values occurs.
It has been said that Eskom is “too big to fail”. However, the Eskom ship is listing in choppy seas, leaderless and rudderless, while the band plays on, because the players have little idea of what else to do to save the situation.
- Chris Yelland, investigative editor at EE Publishers