Covid-19 pandemic in graphs that matter to SAs; death forecast goes up – Douglas Parker

Written on 08/27/2020
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By Douglas Parker* 

The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)

  • The total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 24 051 000
  • The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 27.6%
  • The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 69.0%
  • And the total percentage of patients who have died from the virus is: 3.4%
  • The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 0.9%

Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases over the past 24 hours:

Top Countries 25th August

  • India: 66 873
  • Brazil: 46 959
  • USA: 40 098
  • Colombia: 10 432
  • Argentina: 8 771
  • TOTAL 173 133 70% of the world total

Trends in New cases worldwide

Total global new cases today were: +- 248 000 taking the 7 day average to around 251 000

The trend has stabilized due to declining new case numbers in the USA and South Africa.

World cases continue to grow at nearly 1.7 million per week.

New case growth is slowing in the USA, South America and South Africa. Growing in India.

There has been a growing upward trend in new cases in Europe, especially France & Spain.

The rate of growth in new infections in South Africa has been steadily falling since mid-July.

Actual new infections in South Africa have progressed closely in line with our Analog model. But we have revised the forecast total deaths to 15 700.

Since mid-July there has been a steady drop in tests and in positive test results.

Gauteng has had some 34% of total cases in South Africa, KZN 18% Western Cape 17%.

The Western & Eastern Cape have a high recovery rate, Gauteng the lowest death rate.

The Infection rate per million population varies across the provinces.

There has been a steady reduction in new cases in Australia since early August.

Cases in Australia are predominantly in Victoria, with few elsewhere.

The rogue cluster of new cases in Auckland is reducing, and ongoing testing is extensive.

The USA has borne the brunt of the virus in the actual number of infections.

Several smaller countries have had a very high infection rate per million population.

Yemen has had the highest death rate, followed by Italy, the UK and France.

For more analysis and insights on Covid-19, listen to the Biznews Inside Covid-19 podcast, with Alec Hogg.